Tue 6 Nov 2007
The ‘07 season’s in the rearview, now…
Posted by Nate under Nate
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… time to see how the ol’ prognostication actually panned out! Let’s see how prescient the o’ Natester is when it comes to his favorite team.
Curt Schilling: Sure, the Iron Horse is turning 40. In this day and age of massage therapists, performance coaches, private jets and pilates, I say to you: So?
Mr. Cursebuster has pitchability, which is why old-homers like him, Glavine, Smoltz and Clemens are still thriving into their 40’s. They don’t just throw; they pitch. Nobody beats the Big Schill for preparation and mental makeup. Aside from that, he’s still got good life on his fastball - certainly enough to keep hitters honest - a fine splitter, and, now, an acceptable offspeed pitch, years in the making and now ready for deployment. On baseball’s biggest stage, he’s dominated - repeatedly. He’ll pitch and be successful, no matter where he lands after ‘07, until he’s ready to call it quits.
Hopefully, it’s in Beantown.
Yeah, I’m a little bit of a fanboi. Sue me.
Curt cruised along in the first half until he started dealing with shoulder tendinitis in June, where he posted an ugly 5.79 ERA. Once he rehabbed the injury with some DL time, he came back with a very strong close to the season, going 3-4 with a very tide 3.34 ERA after the break. And, of course, he was Curt Schilling once again in the postseason, going 3-0 with a 3.00 combined ERA in 4 starts - once again, a key cog in a Championship machine. Shoulder injury aside, I feel my fanboi-ism was fully justified.
Josh Beckett: Yeah, I know. You look at his ‘06 statistics any deeper than the “W” column, and you regurgitate a little. Most articles about Beckett from about 15 minutes after the ‘06 Series ended until today had something along the lines of “Beckett still has a lot to prove” somewhere in the text body. Maybe. But I think he proved enough in ‘03 to enjoy a bit more confidence than what’s floated his way now.
‘06 was an adjustment year for Beckett, a stranger in a strange land. No more double-A lineups, nobody to pitch around, ever. His most oft-stated goal as he entered the season? Pitching 200 innings and avoiding the blister issues that plagued him for years. Well, he hit his 200 and avoided his blister issue, which Red Sox docs have now diagnosed: Excema. Not, as he’d previously thought, his curveball.
With that knowledge under his belt, what have we seen so far this year? A lot more curveballs and offspeed pitches. He’s also slowed his delivery back down, giving him a better chance of maintaining his own internal tempo, and controlling the speed of the game. Mixed with an explosive fastball that can trail away from lefties and cut in to righties, Beckett has all the tools he needs to succeed, this year.
And boy, did he ever succeed - to the tune of 20-7 (the major’s only 20-game winner since ‘05), a nifty 3.27 ERA and eye-popping secondary stats. And of course, there was the postseason, where he displayed total domination on baseball’s biggest stage - 4-0, 30 IP, 2 BB, 35K’s and a ludicrous 1.20 ERA. He was named the ALCS MVP, and will probably miss the Cy Young by a very small margin of votes.
Take that, naysayers. I told you so.
Daisuke Matsuzaka: Oh man. Here’s the guillotine blow to the back of the neck for the entire AL. Here’s the fulcrum on which the Red sox season will teeter.
Long story short: This dude throws no less than 6 pitches, confirmed. If you ask Bobby Valentine, who would know, he actually has 9. He can throw any of them for strikes, in any count. He has the composure of a Samurai warrior on the mound, and huge grins and laughter for his teammates in the clubhouse. Two starts in, and it’s very, very easy to understand the 51.1m posting fee and the 52m contract.
I could soliloquize endlessly about this guy, but all you need to do is watch a game he starts. Once you see the movement on, well, on all of his offspeed stuff, you’ll know that the only person who’ll be able to beat Matsuzaka, is Matsuzaka. And once you see how he behaves in a game, you’ll understand that the chances of that happening often are very slim.
Errr, ahem. If I weren’t so wildly enthusiastic about this guy - blindingly so, one could say - I’d have allowed more margin for error while he takes the “Beckett Year” to adjust to a new country, language and league. Still, 15-12 with a leage-averageish 4.40 ERA isn’t bad for season 1, and his secondary stats - 201K’s against 80 BB’s in 2-4 IP, with a .246 BAA aren’t too shabby. Most scouts and analysts expect a great leap forward for Matsuzaka in ‘08, a sentiment with which I concur. He’s got the stuff, he just needs more coaching and refinement. And with this organization, he’ll get there.
Tim Wakefield: He only throws one pitch that’s worth a shit, sure - but it’s a knuckler, and a good one. He’s been such a model of stability and consistency, that you can pretty much bank on this: He’ll win more than he loses, with an ERA of somewhere around 4.25 to 4.50. He’ll do what he needs to do to stay healthy, he’ll give you 30+ starts, and hold down the back end of the rotation admirably. Like Schilling, he’ll likely do this until he decides he’s had enough, not before performance forces him out.
Ok, we got the first part down - he finished up 17-12. The ERA took a hit due to shoulder inflammation that developed late in the season, ending in a very pedestrian 4.76 (although ultimately only a quarter-run more than I predicted, so I don’t feel too bad about this one). Is age actually starting to catch up with Tim? We’ll have to wait and see what the arthroscope says in a couple of weeks.
Julian Tavarez: Yeah, right. I can’t stand Tavarez - he’s a smug, aloof cocksucker at the BEST of times, and at the worst, he’s sucker punching Joey Gathright in the face. Everyone knows he’s just a placeholder for the REAL number 5, though, who will be…
Jon Lester: We know, based on last year’s performance, that Lester is a kid that maintains his composure in “nightmare” situations - bases loaded with one away, man on third with no outs, that sort of thing. How many times did we see him dance between the raindrops and come out dry? Too many for comfort, sure. But he battled, never gave in, and often triumphed. He displayed tenaciousness and character. He did all that while unknowingly being dragged down by cancer, which he was treated for in the offseason.
[…]
By the end of this season, a healthy Lester will be manning the 5-hole, likely throwing up something like a 4.25 ERA, 8.5 K/9 with a 1.50ish WHIP.
No, I still don’t like Tavarez, although I have to admit that he accepted his changing roles and ultimate benching with grace that I didn’t expect. What I did expect was something as ugle as his final line - 7-11 with a 5.15 ERA. Yuck. Unfortunately, it took Lester a lot longer than I anticipated to be ready for his callup, and even when it came, the consensus was that he still wasn’t ‘right’ - just much more palatable at that point than Tavarez’s ineffectiveness. So, in limited starts, what did Lester’s line look like?
4-0, 4.57 ERA, 7.9K/9 and a 1.47 WHIP. You have to admit, I was pretty goddamn close. I’m going to take the liberty of taking a bow for this one, too. Of course, there was the little matter of his 5 2/3 shutout innings in the clinching Game 4 of the World Series. Not bad for a kid who went through 6 rounds of chemo less than a year ago.
Batting first, the shortstop, Julio Lugo: While there’s no question that Lugo brings a great attitude and energy to the Sox, there’s some problematic numbers involved with this guy. For instance, we’ll start with .341, his career on-base percentage. Not bad for a #7 hitter, but pretty poor for the guy leading off. Next, we have the number 112 - his seasonal average for strikeouts. Ideally, you want your leadoff man to be a good contact hitter - and this guy’s no Ichiro or Damon, that’s for sure.
[…]
As I said; not sold on this guy as a leadoff man.
I’d say, at this point, that it’s fun to be right as much as I am.
.237 BA. .294 OBP. .349 SLG. 82 K’s against 48 BB’s. 19 errors at short. Ugh. Can we have a mulligan? Lugo ended the season buried in the #9 hole, and even there, he was christened as one of “The Automatics” - guaranteed to kill any rally in the womb. While his play in the postseason was mostly solid, does it redeem the terrible season he had?
The jury’s still out.
Batting second, the first baseman, Kevin Youkilis: (cue “YOOOOOUUUUUUUUK” chant) While Youk isn’t the guy you think of as a “prototypical” first baseman, an examination of his first year in the majors is telling: .381 OBP (excellent for the #2 spot), 42 doubles and only 5 errors at first base (while showing remarkable agility with the leather, both at picking throws in the dirt and making diving plays at the line). He’s the sort of home-grown dirtdog that Boston fans love to cheer for, and he’s providing many opportunities for them to do so, both on offense and defense. Solid.
Solid? Not only did Youk put up good offensive numbers this season (.288 / .390 / .453, along with 84 RBI’s), he didn’t commit an error at first base all season. He’s got that spot nailed down for the forseeable future.
Batting third, the designated hitter, David Ortiz: I don’t think I have to say much here. Since 2003, this dude’s hit 173 homers, driven in 525 runs, slugged .616 and ran up an OPS of .999. And that’s given a 2003 season in which he only played 128 games, platooning with Jeremy Giambi (lol) and some other stiff I can’t remember (J.T. Snow, perhaps). Even those gargantuan numbers can’t speak to what he’s done to carry this Sox team, both in the regular and postseason. You all know the stories.
… and ol’ Papi just kept on truckin’. While the “analysts” and “writers” were busily nattering on about Ortiz’s “down season”, I was telling anyone and everyone who’d listen to look at his stats again, very closely. And he only ended up having what could be argued to be his best season at the plate, setting career highs in average (.332), OBP (.445!) and OPS (1.066) while losing just a whister off his SLG from his supposed “season for the ages” in 2006.
Yes, I know home runs are nice, guys, but in this modern age of baseball, you really have to look at the deeper numbers. This guy was a force of nature, yet again, bad knee and all. Can’t wait to see what he does again in ‘08.
Batting fourth, the left fielder, Manny Ramirez: Creeping age is beginning to take a toll on Ramirez, as he takes longer and longer to hit his groove from season to season.
[…]
At 35, Ramirez is a player beginning his decline. While his monstrous talent and excellent physical condition should keep that decline more gradual and less precipitous than most, I’m still both worried about what sort of actual production we’ll see from him in 2007 (especially given his historically bad start), and quietly relieved that his contract is nearly up. However, there’s still no good reason to expect less than .275 / .400 / .550 with 30+ homers and 100 batted in, meaning Papi should still see plenty of good pitches to hit.
No good reason, of course, except the oblique injury that kept him out of the lineup for six weeks. However, even if he’d stayed in the lineup, he might have been hard-pressed to have hit the 30 dingers. Final line: .296, .388, .493 with 20 HR and 88 RBI. Perhaps 6 healthy weeks would have put him closer to the numbers I predicted, and he certainly morphed into some sort of October Monster when the playoffs rolled in - yet his season is indicative of exactly what I’d warned you of 6 months ago. This is a player in decline.
Batting fifth, the right fielder, J. D. Drew: Unlike many diehard Sox fans, I was pretty excited about the prospect of Drew patrolling Fenway’s uncanny right field. He’s an excellent defender with a good throwing arm, and he fits well with the Sox offensive philosophy: sign guys that work pitchers and get on base. Don’t get me wrong; I’m sortof expecting Drew to be a “bad signing” by his fourth year. By then he’ll be 35, and looking the end of his career straight in the face, as Manny will have to begin doing soon. However, for the next couple of seasons, if the training staff can keep him healthy, I expect to see a top-notch player in the prime of his game.
This is the one place I was egregiously wrong. League adjustment and personal issues off the field (including an infant son who needed complicated hip surgery and spent weeks afterward in a body cast) left Drew with some seriously subpar stats, even based against his career numbers. However, there’s a light at the end of the tunnel: In September, he put up a much more Drew-like .342 / .454 / .618 line, and continued his hot hitting right through the playoffs, including a can-you-believe-it Grand Slam in Game 6 of the ALCS which essentially stuck a knife right in Cleveland’s guts and twisted. We’ll see if he comes around in ‘08, or if all the naysayers crying “bust” have the last laugh.
Batting sixth, the third baseman, Mike Lowell: Like Billy Mueller before him, this is a player you can’t help but love. Rock-solid at the hot corner, he’s proven he can still pick it with the best of them. He’s begun this season in keeping with his normal career numbers, and I think we can expect another good, productive season along the ilnes of .275, .330, .450 with 45ish doubles and 15 dingers to boot. Any team besides the Yankees would be happy to have that sort of threat working late in the order.
Even my optimistic appraisal of Lowell didn’t do him justice in the end, with Lowell running up a career year: .324 / .378 / .501, displaying both a touch more patience and a touch more power this year. His 120 RBI led the team in the regular season, and his sterling, clutch play in the postseason earned him World Series MVP honors.
Batting seventh, the catcher, Jason Varitek: No arm and no bat, anymore. I mean, he’s the captain, and deservedly so. Nobody in my memory has brought more pride and dignity to the uniform than Varitek, and watching him fade is a sad thing, as a fan. He’s still the master of preparation and working with his pitching staff, and his value as the teams primary catcher, like Derek Jeter’s value to the Yankees, cannot be quantified just by the numbers. Still, though, let’s all hope that George Kotteras really works out. We’re watching the end of Varitek’s career, with each game that passes.
This pretty much held out, although ‘Tek’s regression wasn’t precipitous. He batted only .255, but with a more-than-accetable .367 OBP, which are decent numbers for a 7-8-9 hitter. His SLG actually ticked up 21 points, but that .421 is still a far cry from his 03-05 heyday. While it’s ridiculous to expect his to have an offensive resurgence at this stage of his career (although possible, given what Jorge Posada did this season), if he can continue his holding pattern and put up a .250 / .350 / .425 season next year, I think we could all agree that it would justify his salary and roster spot, given all of the other intangibles (love that word) he brings to the table for this team.
Batting eighth, the center fielder, Coco Crisp: The best thing Boston could hope for this year is that Jacoby Ellsbury, their star AA / AAA CF prospect, somehow warps into Carl Crawford by midseason and gets called up, thus benching Crisp.
[…]
So, keep your fingers crossed, and hope Ellsbury turns into “Young Johnny Damon”, as many scouts are projecting.
Ding ding ding. Dubbed a member of “The Automatics” by midseason (along with Julio Lugo and J.D. Drew), Crisp was an offensive black hole almost from start to finish. While his arm remained Damon-esque, he did exhibit outrageous defense in center this year, which in some part mitigated his terrible year at the dish.
Ellsbury, of course, came in for the benched Crisp in the postseason and played absolutely stellar ball, on top of his excellent play in September as a ManRam fill-in. Crisp will be traded in the offseason, and Boston will anoint its greatest center field prospect since Fred Lynn. The fans love this kid, and with good reason.
Batting ninth, the second baseman, Dustin Pedroia: The jury is out this season. This is his first year as a rookie starter, and you have to give the kid some leeway and assume time needed to adjust to the majors. His fielding is nothing special, yet neither was Wade Boggs’ when he came up. With diligent work, Boggs crafted himself into a Gold Glove third baseman, and Pedroia is said to possess an excellent work ethic of his own. Given time, I think we can still be optimistic that Pedroia can reproduce Youkilis-lite numbers (.285 AVG, .385 OBP, ~40 doubles) while doing a passable job as a middle infielder. It’s going to come down to how much he’s willing to work to make the correct adjustments and improve his gloveowrk and pivots around the bag.
Turns out I was right, Pedroia did need some time to adjust to the majors… about a month. After that, he went on a 5-month tear that will land him AL Rookie of the Year honors this week, and deservedly so.
Like Boggs, Pedroia put in his time working on his defense, and boy did it show on the field. While he’s still as slow as molasses running the bases, his twitch reflexes are tremendous, and he gets good reads on balls right off the bat. That translates to exception range, and coupled with his great hands, this kid is going to be a perennial gold glove threat for the next decade.
Offensively, he bettered my .285 prediction by over 30 points, came in with a .380 OBP, and hit 39 doubles. Am I the fucking man or what?
And, onto my overall projections:
Projection:
With a plus pitching corps, a solid if unspectacular offense and good corner / right field defense, this is a team capable of winning 95 games, even in the grueling cauldron of attrition that will be this year’s AL East. Normally, this would not be enough to guarantee the division over the vaunted Yankees, particularly given their powerful offense, which will easily score 900+ runs again this season. The problems for the Yanks, however, are twofold: Myriad pitching problems, and a general uptick in the skills of no less than 8 fellow AL clubs. The Yankees will find it much more difficult to simply roll over the poorer teams in the league this season, and if the injury bug strikes (which is almost guaranteed on a roster that old), this could be an ugly, 88-win season in the Bronx.
If the Sox avoid key injuries, they take the division.
They won 96.
Of course, while New York suffered much in the way I’d thought they might, they ended up with 94 wins, bettering my worst-case scenario by 6 games, mostly off the monster season Alex Rodriguez turned in (locking him in for his third MVP award). But, in the end, their pitching was a mess (see: Clemens, Roger) and my Sox did, ultimately, take their first division title since 1995.
Red Sox 5 keys to the season:
1. Coax production from the bottom of the order.
2. Make sure Beckett stays with his offspeed stuff.
3. Don’t overuse Papelbon.
4. Trade Coco Crisp if at all possible.
5. Keep Varitek healthy and on the field, even if it means suffering his .225 BA.
1. Failed until the postseason, when Crisp was (finally) benched and Ellsbury took his spot. Lugo suddenly remembered how to hit .300 (although his second half was fairly respectable for a 9-hitter) and J.D. Drew, continuing his September resurgence, turned himself into a minor postseason hero.
2. Success. Beckett came in with many more curves and changeups this season, and the likely result will be second place in the Cy Young voting and an ALCS MVP trophy. Spectacular.
3. They didn’t, and it enabled them to ride his back throughout the most important games of the season, while keeping his wiggly shoulder joint totally healthy. Kudos to Tito and the training staff. Great work.
4. Failed; however, a problem once again corrected in the postseason, proving the old adage “better late then never” true once more.
5. Success again, and it showed in the Red Sox pitching lineup, which I believe came in at # 2 in the majors in ERA and pretty high up the league strikeout ladder. Take a bow, Captain; your bat may be a little weak, but the rest of your game’s better than ever.
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