Yeah, I know.

“But Nate, you’ve never blogged about sports before.”

Then this is a great time to start!

“I come here for amateur-hour politics. Sports are for fags.”

Sorry. This is probably only the first of many Red Sox-related posts for the next 6 months, so suck it up.

“Baseball sucks.”

Fuck you.

There. Onward and upward.

The lineup:

This isn’t going to be the monster-mashers of 03-05 that set team records for offense. While most analysts are bullish about the Sox’ prospects for scoring 875-900 runs, I’m not sold, yet. Specifically, I’m nowhere near sold on Julio Lugo as a leadoff man, and the bottom of this order is going to be weak. I’m expecting a return to the leaner offensive years of 00-02, where the Red Sox often had problems starting or maintaining rallies.

The rotation:

This is part 1 of “covering for the shaky offense”. While Wakefield is never going to be much more than a 12-8 / 4.35 guy from here on out and Julian Tavarez is nobody’s preferred choice for a number 5, both should be able to hold down the back end until Jon Lester is ready to resume his spot in the 5-hole and Tavarez can return to his natual spot in middle relief. A rotation of Schilling, Beckett, Matsuzaka, Wakefield and Lester should be at or near the top of the majors for starter ERA, WHIP, Wins and IP.

The bullpen:

Looks solid. Granted, now, we’re not talking the Angels Relief Corps of Doom, here. However, with a healthy Kyle Snyder sharing time with a generally-reliable Brendon Donnelly and an aging-but-effective Mike Timlin, there should be a sturdy bridge to get the game to Jonathan Papelbon, the best closer in the bigs last season. In short, don’t expect any Cy Young contenders in the middle innings, but don’t expect guys coming to the mound with gas cans, either. A respectable crew if healthy.

Defense:

Question: What do you get when you have a shortstop who averages 22 errors a season, a rookie second baseman with flat feet, a center fielder with Johnny Damon’s Right Arm and half the range, and Manny Ramirez in left field?

Answer: Typical Boston defense. i.e., terrible.

Projection:

With a plus pitching corps, a solid if unspectacular offense and good corner / right field defense, this is a team capable of winning 95 games, even in the grueling cauldron of attrition that will be this year’s AL East. Normally, this would not be enough to guarantee the division over the vaunted Yankees, particularly given their powerful offense, which will easily score 900+ runs again this season. The problems for the Yanks, however, are twofold: Myriad pitching problems, and a general uptick in the skills of no less than 8 fellow AL clubs. The Yankees will find it much more difficult to simply roll over the poorer teams in the league this season, and if the injury bug strikes (which is almost guaranteed on a roster that old), this could be an ugly, 88-win season in the Bronx.

If the Sox avoid key injuries, they take the division.

Red Sox 5 keys to the season:

1. Coax production from the bottom of the order.

2. Make sure Beckett stays with his offspeed stuff.

3. Don’t overuse Papelbon.

4. Trade Coco Crisp if at all possible.

5. Keep Varitek healthy and on the field, even if it means suffering his .225 BA.

I’ll return with more in-depth analysis on Monday.